Plain and simple: It’s Centennial’s championship to lose.

If it sounds boring and a little one-sided, it’s because the Coyotes are the three-time defending champions, haven’t lost a game since early September 2007 and have beaten 5A Division I contenders Phoenix Brophy and Chandler this season. The Coyotes are almost as talented at the skill positions as the past few years, have perhaps the best offensive line in the state and a defense that hasn’t allowed more than 14 points in any game since Week 2.

Everyone else is in chase mode. Scottsdale Chaparral is the No. 2 seed, but the Firebirds lost last week to Scottsdale Desert Mountain and haven’t been as sharp in the two weeks prior to that either. Personal tragedies (and a near-death experience in coach Charlie Ragle’s family) have been a problem, but with resolution and the possible wake-up call last week, could the Firebirds start anew in this second season? To do so, they’ll have to go back through a Desert Valley Region team in the state semifinals. Same for No. 3 seed Phoenix Pinnacle, though the Pioneers might meet Desert Mountain in the second round if the seeding holds up. Tempe Marcos de Niza is a dangerous No. 4 seed, and a matchup with Centennial looms in the semifinals. 

First-round pairings: No. 16 Cibola at No. 1 Centennial; No. 9 Boulder Creek at No. 8 Westview; No. 12 Horizon at No. 5 Sunnyside; No. 13 Central at No. 4 Marcos de Niza; No. 14 Ironwood at No. 3 Pinnacle; No. 11 Ironwood Ridge at No. 6 Desert Mountain; No. 10 Sandra Day O’Connor at No. 7 Millennium; No. 15 Perry at No. 2 Chaparral.

Best first-round matchup: No. 10 Sandra Day O’Connor at No. 7 Millennium — Unlike 4A-II, most of the first-round games are looking to be clunkers, but this one looks evenly matched across the board. O’Connor started the season 0-3 but won seven consecutive games to end the season, albeit not against stellar competition. The big question is whether O’Connor’s defense can stop Millenniumn standouts Marquis Flowers, Mike Massey and Jason Vizcaino. The caveat: Whoever wins probably gets a date at Chaparral in the quarterfinals.

Upset alert: Don’t expect much craziness to begin these playoffs, but No. 12 Scottsdale Horizon must travel to No. 5 Tucson Sunnyside. It’s a daunting task for Steve Casey’s Huskies, but they have the offensive scheme and balance capable of putting points on the board against a good Sunnyside defense. The Blue Devils beat Mesa Mountain View early in the season, but lost their only game thus far last week to Tucson Salpointe and didn’t play much competition in between. Phoenix North Canyon is the only common opponent, and Sunnyside barely won while Horizon blew out the Rattlers.

Keep an eye on:

Anthony Hughes, Centennial: Older brother John Hughes was dynamite for the Coyotes during their current 5A-II dynasty, and, running behind a mammoth, athletic offensive line, younger brother Anthony is doing the same. He has 1,680 yards and 28 rushing touchdowns, has gone more than 200 yards in four consecutive games and has a whopping 11.8 yards per carry.

Ramon Abreu, Marcos de Niza: An ASU commit, he’s a dual threat out of the backfield on offense and has 95 total tackles and three sacks on defense. When he’s running the ball effectively, Marcos is at its best.

Dwayne Garrett, Chaparral: As silky smooth a runner as there is in the E.V., but he’s deceptively fast. Rushed for nearly 1,400 yards and 25 total touchdowns, it’ll be up to Garrett and Cole Tyree to take the pressure off sophomore Connor Brewer for the Firebirds to reach the title game.

Kyle Tokasey, Desert Mountain: Has 18 receptions this season but makes a difference defensively as a hard-hitting safety with 55 tackles, six interceptions, 11 passes defensively and he blocks kicks.

Jourdan Grandon, Westview: Dynamic playmaker at quarterback missed the entire regular season because of injury, but came back last week to play one half against Millennium. Excels on both sides of the ball, and Westview will need him everywhere to have the slightest chance against Centennial in the second round.

Getting defensive: After the first round, get ready for low-scoring slugfests. Centennial, Sunnyside, Marcos de Niza, Chaparral, Desert Mountain and Pinnacle all excel on defense, so pretty soon any team that puts up 17 points will be tough to beat.

Prediction: Three of the four semifinalists can probably be penciled in: Centennial, Marcos de Niza (though the Padres will have their hands full with Sunnyside in the second round) and Chaparral. The fourth spot is going to be interesting, as a Pinnacle-Desert Mountain rematch in the quarterfinals is the favorite to emerge. Both teams are good defensively, the question being which Desert Mountain offense will show up. The Firebirds would love another crack at Desert Mountain in the semifinals, and will barely get through.

That sets up a Centennial-Chaparral championship clash, and though the Firebirds can give the Coyotes a run for their money when all is right in their universe, it’s still probably not enough to stop this juggernaut. Centennial wins its fourth consecutive title.